In 2018, a Pew Research Center poll reported that only about one third of Americans believed that the United States had mostly succeeded in achieving its goals in Afghanistan, and nearly half believed that American efforts had mostly failed. Yet after almost two decades of war, the U.S. remains embroiled in this conflict. A tentative opportunity for the U.S. to end its long-winded involvement in Afghanistan, however, has recently surfaced.
U.S. forces launched the invasion of Afghanistan after the Taliban regime refused to turn over Osama bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders following the September 11th terrorist attacks. After quickly toppling the Taliban government just months after the attacks, the U.S. and its NATO allies attempted to rebuild Afghan democracy by installing a new government and sought to fight terrorism in Afghanistan. Since then, the U.S. has maintained fluctuating levels of military presence in Afghanistan, fighting to control waves of violent insurgency. In February 2020, the formal signing of a US-Taliban peace deal offered a glimpse of an end to America’s longest foreign war.
However, this peace deal could unravel all that the current Afghan government, the U.S., and numerous other nations have worked for. Under the agreed-upon terms, the Taliban would break its ties with other terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda, ensure that its land would not be used by any parties seeking to harm the United States or its allies, and participate in peace talks with the Afghan government. In return, the United States would reduce the number of their troops to 8,600 in the first 135 days following the agreement, and withdraw altogether within fourteen months.
By the end of the Trump administration, the U.S. was already drastically ahead of schedule on its end of the deal. As of January 2021, 2,500 U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan, and the agreement stipulates that the U.S. must withdraw these remaining troops from the country by the beginning of May. While the idea of ending U.S. presence in Afghanistan at last may sound tempting, the withdrawal of troops must be executed far more gradually and carefully. If the United States continues on this path of rapid withdrawal, it risks the collapse of intra-Afghan negotiations and a Taliban resurgence.
Without a U.S. presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban is unlikely to make a serious effort to end the conflict and follow through on their promises. The Afghan government relies on American military and economic support, and history has seen this government easily overcome by a resurgent Taliban once international support has left. There is reason to believe that history will repeat itself if the Afghan government loses international support again. According to experts, the Taliban is the strongest it has been in eighteen years, armed with around sixty thousand fighters and controlling significant measures of land. If rapid troop withdrawal continues, the Afghan government may be under significant threat.
There is already evidence to suggest that the situation is crumbling: negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban have made little progress, and violent attacks in Afghanistan have risen 50% in the last few months, targeting civilians and security forces alike. Furthermore, prior to his dismissal, former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper released a memo claiming that the conditions for withdrawal had not been met and cautioning against the further removal of American troops. Many senior military leaders and even Republican Trump allies, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have also come out in opposition of rapid troop withdrawal.
They are right to show concern, as the reestablishment of a Taliban regime would be a serious loss for America as well as Afghanistan. Over the last twenty years, more than 157,000 lives have been lost and trillions of dollars spent on the war by the U.S. alone. Furthermore, a Taliban resurgence would represent a serious diplomatic failure and a significant loss of U.S. influence in the region. If the U.S. pulls away from Afghanistan and the Middle East too quickly, it may create a power vacuum that invites other world powers, including Russia and China, to deepen their own regional influence. Moreover, there is serious potential for violent extremist groups to once again use Afghanistan as safe grounds to regroup and rearm, undoing any progress that has been made in terms of counterterrorism and security.
The rapid disengagement from Afghanistan was consistent with the Trump administration’s “America First” policy toward foreign and domestic affairs, but it is clearly in American interest to hold the Taliban accountable to its end of the deal. While it may seem that continued involvement in Afghan affairs only encourages Afghan dependence on American financial and military support, the solution is not sudden disengagement. The war is certainly unpopular amongst the American public, but it is necessary to end the conflict carefully and responsibly. This will necessitate American oversight of peaceful and successful intra-Afghan negotiations, which will ultimately allow the U.S. to withdraw without leaving chaos behind. Otherwise, the efforts, resources, and lost lives of Afghans, Americans, and other international participants will be for naught.
Trump’s continued rapid withdrawal following the November 2020 presidential election has created a serious dilemma for the new Biden administration. With less than three months before the May 2021 deadline for full troops withdrawal, the Biden administration must either negotiate an extended deadline, refuse to withdraw further, or carry out its initial agreement for total withdrawal in spite of evidence that the Taliban is not holding up their end of the deal. Although the first two options risk angering the Taliban and further inciting violence, they are preferable to the long-term catastrophe that full withdrawal by May is likely to wreak upon Afghanistan. The Biden administration must pause the withdrawal of troops until intra-Afghan negotiations show substantial progress and until terrorist violence has been slowed. If America hopes to end its war in Afghanistan once and for all, it must invest the extra time to carry out the best resolution or risk obliterating twenty years of effort.