“Whoever governs Singapore must have that iron in him. Or give it up. This is not a game of cards! This is your life and mine! I’ve spent a whole lifetime building this and as long as I’m in charge, nobody is going to knock it down.”
- Former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, 1980
Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Heng Swee Keat’s April 2021 decision to step aside as Singapore’s Prime Minister-designate is unprecedented in the island nation’s fifty-six years of independence. In a letter to Prime Minister (PM) Lee Hsien Loong, the sixty-year-old Heng attributed his decision to age and poor health – Heng had suffered a stroke in 2016, and though now in much better condition, was wary of the more “exacting” demands that would be placed on the PM in a post-COVID world.
Heng’s stepping aside has thrown the issue of succession within the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) back into question after it was initially believed to have been resolved in 2019. Heng’s own nomination as PM-designate that year was already considered an uncharacteristically late appointment given that it would only have provided him with a three-year runway prior to assumption of the role in 2022 (when PM Lee initially planned to retire). In comparison, Heng’s two predecessors enjoyed a six- and fourteen-year gap between their initial appointments and eventual assumption of the role.
The PAP first consolidated its power in 1963, when former PM Lee Kuan Yew’s government initiated an internal security operation that severely weakened a then-nascent political opposition. Since then, a mix of factors – ranging from unique electoral processes to the extensive employment of laws and lawsuits against members of the opposition – have allowed the PAP to entrench its dominant position within Singaporean politics. Alongside other far-sighted policies, long-term succession planning has helped to bolster the PAP’s regime stability by ensuring that future leaders have had the time to be mentored and tested prior to the assumption of their roles. Such planning has also been perceived to be important in reducing investor uncertainty over policy continuity following leadership changes in Singapore.
PM Lee recently announced that the “4G team” – the fourth generation of PAP leaders who will select the next PM from amongst their ranks – still needs more time to nominate his successor. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that this setback in leadership planning poses an immediate political crisis for the PAP. Heng’s announcement did not result in much economic perturbation at the time, and investor confidence in the Singaporean economy was not significantly impacted. Some analysts argue that the question of “who leads” is not a particularly serious issue for business interests in Singapore: due to an extensive civil service scholarship system that funnels promising talent into select junior colleges and then Oxbridge schools, most of the front-runners for the role of PM all come from similar educational and bureaucratic stock. It is hence unlikely that any of the party’s eventual nominees will pursue an overly independent or maverick policy agenda.
While Heng’s withdrawal may not therefore necessarily portend political crisis, it may perhaps still be indicative of a changing local political scene that is proving more difficult for the PAP’s scholar-elite to navigate. There is no doubt that Heng is a brilliant technocrat – as Finance Minister (a role he held concurrently with that of DPM), he oversaw the delivery of a remarkable five budgets within the span of a year during the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, his performances as a politician have left much to be desired. During a 2019 parliamentary exchange with the opposition, Heng noticeably struggled with his line of argument and ultimately asked for an adjournment of proceedings when an opposition politician called a motion he moved against them “premature”. While campaigning during the 2020 general elections, Heng’s fumbles at a Nomination Day rally spawned memes mocking his strange and confusing announcement of an “East Coast Plan”. During that election, Heng’s team only won 53 percent of the vote in the constituency he contested – a narrow margin of victory given that his public appointment as PM-designate had been well established by that point.
2020 proved to be a watershed year for Singapore’s parliamentary opposition in general, and it would be unfair to single out Heng’s electoral performance given that the PAP as a whole did relatively poorly as well. Nonetheless, it is hard to deny that Heng’s narrow victory presents a less than convincing picture of public confidence in what would have been Singapore’s future PM. It is difficult to ascertain whether Heng’s decision to step aside was related to his performance in 2020, and while Heng has publicly refuted the assertion that this is the case, some commentators have pointed out that Heng’s poor health and old age (the reasons he provided for stepping aside) were already known to him in 2019.
The events surrounding Heng’s decision may hence demonstrate that the question of who exactly is appointed to lead will eventually prove an important variable in allowing for the PAP to sustain its dominance of Singaporean politics. While the PAP has established its political brand based upon the policymaking reputations of its Oxbridge-educated technocrats – many of whom had entered politics after successful careers in the civil service or military – this formula may not prove sufficient for winning the hearts and minds of voters in time to come. The opposition has been able to muster personalities who not only appear to match the intellectual pedigree of the PAP’s rank-and-file in the eyes of the public but also have the charisma to boot. A notable example of this in 2020 was Jamus Lim, a Harvard degree-holding economist whose Worker’s Party team upset a PAP effort led by a sitting Minister that was also a former Chief of Defense Force.
The PAP will almost certainly resolve the issue of succession prior to the next General Election in 2025, and though no clear front-runner has yet emerged, possible candidates have already been identified. Following a cabinet reshuffle two weeks after Heng’s announcement, the previously low-profile Lawrence Wong was given the coveted role of Finance Minister (Heng’s own portfolio prior to the shake-up). Wong was also the beneficiary of positive publicity as co-chair of Singapore’s COVID-19 task force. Former Chief of Army Chan Chun Sing also remains in the running – though he tends to cut a more polarizing figure given public gaffes that have offended some segments of the electorate. Regardless of who eventually takes on the mantle of PM-designate, this much is clear: the successor to the role of PM must bring more to the table than just policymaking know-how and Cambridge credentials if he or she seeks to keep the party’s crown – and, for that matter, the crown for the party.